December 4, 2024

Whitepaper: SOFR Dynamics Are Not What You Wished

Marco Macchiavelli, Professor of Finance
University of Massachusetts Amherst, Isenberg School of Management

Executive Summary.

  • SOFR dynamics are heavily influenced by regulatory window-dressing incentives at month-ends and by Treasury net issuance;
  • none of these factors are related to bank funding risk, which is what a LIBOR replacement should capture;
  • AMERIBOR, a credit-sensitive reference rate, is not contaminated by either month end or Treasury net issuance dynamics;
  • with ever-increasing federal budget deficits, the growth in Treasury net issuance may induce unnecessary volatility in SOFR that is unrelated to bank funding risk.

Access the whitepaper here.